Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
